Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 18,831
2 New Jersey 17,355
3 Massachusetts 13,445
4 Rhode Island 13,276
5 District of Columbia 11,491
6 Connecticut 11,350
7 Delaware 9,046
8 Illinois 8,723
9 Louisiana 8,022
10 Maryland 7,760
11 Nebraska 6,272
12 Pennsylvania 5,597
13 Iowa 5,525
14 Michigan 5,468
15 South Dakota 5,157
16 Indiana 4,775
17 Mississippi 4,452
18 Virginia 4,246
19 Colorado 4,191
20 Georgia 3,860
21 Minnesota 3,649
22 New Mexico 3,311
23 North Dakota 3,172
24 Kansas 3,135
25 New Hampshire 3,051
26 Alabama 2,952
27 Tennessee 2,945
28 Ohio 2,729
29 Washington 2,722
30 Wisconsin 2,638
31 Utah 2,617
32 Nevada 2,560
33 California 2,397
34 Florida 2,367
35 Arizona 2,244
36 North Carolina 2,214
37 Kentucky 1,979
38 Missouri 1,973
39 Arkansas 1,962
40 South Carolina 1,960
41 Texas 1,933
42 Vermont 1,532
43 Maine 1,528
44 Oklahoma 1,525
45 Idaho 1,482
46 Wyoming 1,404
47 Puerto Rico 998
48 West Virginia 988
49 Oregon 931
50 Alaska 559
51 Montana 448
52 Hawaii 447

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Illinois 198
2 Maryland 180
3 Rhode Island 155
4 District of Columbia 152
5 South Dakota 145
6 Delaware 144
7 Minnesota 140
8 Iowa 133
9 Massachusetts 125
10 Nebraska 122
11 Connecticut 117
12 Mississippi 115
13 New Jersey 100
14 New York 86
15 Wisconsin 84
16 North Dakota 82
17 Virginia 82
18 New Mexico 74
19 Indiana 73
20 North Carolina 73
21 Alabama 72
22 Georgia 63
23 Pennsylvania 62
24 Colorado 56
25 Tennessee 55
26 Utah 53
27 California 52
28 Nevada 52
29 New Hampshire 52
30 Arkansas 51
31 Ohio 49
32 Louisiana 47
33 Arizona 46
34 South Carolina 46
35 Maine 44
36 Kansas 41
37 Michigan 38
38 Florida 34
39 West Virginia 31
40 Oklahoma 30
41 Washington 30
42 Texas 29
43 Puerto Rico 28
44 Kentucky 27
45 Missouri 24
46 Idaho 21
47 Oregon 8
48 Wyoming 6
49 Alaska 3
50 Vermont 3
51 Hawaii 0
52 Montana 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,493
2 New Jersey 1,253
3 Connecticut 1,035
4 Massachusetts 924
5 District of Columbia 612
6 Louisiana 578
7 Rhode Island 573
8 Michigan 523
9 Pennsylvania 401
10 Illinois 385
11 Maryland 376
12 Delaware 334
13 Indiana 293
14 Colorado 231
15 Mississippi 210
16 Georgia 169
17 Ohio 168
18 Minnesota 155
19 New Hampshire 153
20 New Mexico 151
21 Iowa 144
22 Washington 140
23 Virginia 137
24 Nevada 127
25 Alabama 112
26 Missouri 112
27 Arizona 109
28 Florida 104
29 California 95
30 Kentucky 89
31 Wisconsin 87
32 Vermont 86
33 South Carolina 84
34 Nebraska 79
35 Oklahoma 78
36 North Carolina 73
37 North Dakota 69
38 Kansas 68
39 Maine 58
40 South Dakota 56
41 Texas 52
42 Tennessee 49
43 Idaho 44
44 West Virginia 40
45 Puerto Rico 39
46 Arkansas 38
47 Oregon 35
48 Utah 30
49 Wyoming 20
50 Montana 14
51 Hawaii 12
52 Alaska 10

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Rhode Island 16
2 Connecticut 10
3 Massachusetts 10
4 New Jersey 10
5 District of Columbia 9
6 Illinois 6
7 Maryland 6
8 New York 6
9 Pennsylvania 6
10 Mississippi 5
11 Iowa 4
12 Louisiana 4
13 Delaware 3
14 Indiana 3
15 Michigan 3
16 Minnesota 3
17 New Mexico 3
18 Ohio 3
19 New Hampshire 2
20 Virginia 2
21 Alabama 1
22 Arizona 1
23 California 1
24 Colorado 1
25 Florida 1
26 Georgia 1
27 Maine 1
28 Missouri 1
29 Nevada 1
30 North Carolina 1
31 South Carolina 1
32 South Dakota 1
33 Tennessee 1
34 Wisconsin 1
35 Alaska 0
36 Arkansas 0
37 Hawaii 0
38 Idaho 0
39 Kansas 0
40 Kentucky 0
41 Montana 0
42 Nebraska 0
43 North Dakota 0
44 Oklahoma 0
45 Oregon 0
46 Puerto Rico 0
47 Texas 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Washington 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 123,449 1 99
Dakota Nebraska 79,696 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 74,785 3 99
Nobles Minnesota 67,363 4 99
Lake Tennessee 58,295 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 6,816 264 91
Richland South Carolina 3,274 664 78
Pierce Washington 2,070 983 68
Orange California 1,680 1156 63
York South Carolina 1,210 1460 53

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Terrell Georgia 3,048 1 99
Early Georgia 2,846 2 99
Randolph Georgia 2,803 3 99
Hancock Georgia 2,483 4 99
Essex New Jersey 1,996 5 99
Richland South Carolina 152 559 82
Davidson Tennessee 82 831 73
Pierce Washington 82 834 73
Orange California 41 1196 61
York South Carolina 21 1465 53

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons